Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season
Pre-season 90Q.INVEST (!) Look at the cyclonephase map by GFS, and this wave tracking map. Some computer models predict or have predicted that it will strengthen into a TS in a few days! The sea surface temps in this area are way warmer than 2004 when Catarina formed, so definitely stay tuned. 2007Astro'sHurricane 04:03, March 5, 2010 (UTC) :I'm a bit late as it's all done with by now, but I thought it was worth mentioning that on NRL this is/was listed as 90'Q'. Also, Jeff Masters over on Wunderground is of the opinion that at its peak it was a tropical storm. --Patteroast 01:48, March 15, 2010 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Hey hey! First North Atlantic invest of the season! North of the Bahamas. --Patteroast 23:16, May 21, 2010 (UTC) :A special pre-season TWO was issued on this. NHC has it at low risk at this point. --Patteroast 02:06, May 26, 2010 (UTC) NOAA Predictions Out now. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml 14-23 named, 8-14 'canes, and 3-7 majors, ACE 155-270% of median. If those predictions are right, we're looking at a 2008-level season at best, and at very nearly 2005 all over again at worse. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:17, May 28, 2010 (UTC) June 91L.INVEST This is the remnant convection of Agatha, which killed 150+ people in Central America. Convection flared up yesterday, but dissipated and is flaring up again today. It currently appears to be moving east. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:48, June 1, 2010 (UTC) AoI: West of Windwards Low risk area from NHC. "SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT." --Patteroast 21:05, June 9, 2010 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Even though it's WAY out there for June, NHC's got this at medium risk. "A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE QUITE RARE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." --Patteroast 11:05, June 13, 2010 (UTC) :Risk at 50% up from 30% earlier. --Patteroast 20:20, June 13, 2010 (UTC) ::Up at 60% now. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:45, June 14, 2010 (UTC) :::Less organized today, back down to medium risk, 40%. --Patteroast 21:22, June 14, 2010 (UTC) ::::And even less now, down to 20%. Looks like it missed its chance to be Alex. --Patteroast 18:36, June 15, 2010 (UTC) :::::Poofed now.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 07:40, June 17, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Actually, still out there... pretty much no risk of development, but it is bringing some heavy rains. --Patteroast 13:05, June 19, 2010 (UTC) :::::::It had actually poofed off the NHC's map, but then it unpoofed itself back into a 10%--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:42, June 19, 2010 (UTC) 01L.ALEX 93L.INVEST Hm, 92L appears to be gone and 93L has popped up in its place. Either way, still storms moving westward across the Caribbean with a low risk of development at this time. --Patteroast 16:43, June 21, 2010 (UTC) :This one looks very good and conditions seem somewhat favorable. SHIPS, LGEM and ICVN all make it a major hurricane in five days but the GFDL, HWRF and GFS don't do much with it. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:52, June 21, 2010 (UTC) ::So far I've been wondering if maybe we'll get a small tropical storm so we can start the season off and everything. But I just checked the latest GFDL run, which makes 93L a category 3 hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico, aimed at Louisiana. Now I'm starting to get worried. (Hopefully it doesn't end up anything like that!) --Patteroast 08:05, June 22, 2010 (UTC) :::I just noticed the same thing. The 12Z run makes it a 90kt Category 2 headed for southeast Louisiana by 12Z June 27, which is 53 years to the day after Hurricane Audrey wiped Cameron, LA off the face of the Earth. That said, it is extremely unusual for an Atlantic hurricane to get that strong this early in the season. Still, the GFDL forecast is a little spooky. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:59, June 22, 2010 (UTC) ::::I am not sure about what this storm will do, but major hurricanes are rare in June; the last one was Alma in 1966, 44 years ago. We might be overdue by now, and if this storm does end up the way these forecasts are saying, it could be a horiffic enviromental disaster. All of the oil from the oil spill in the Gulf could get caught up in the storm surge of a hurricane, which would not only destroy, but contaminate, all of the water and other resources there. 20:34, June 22, 2010 (UTC) :::::It does not look like much today, and the recon flight has been called off. NHC still thinks it has potential though, and it's still at medium risk. --Patteroast 21:37, June 23, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Hmm. Still not looking like much, still medium risk, and now a TCFA issued. Models going considerably less crazy about it now, at least. --Patteroast 16:25, June 24, 2010 (UTC) :::::::60% risk.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:00, June 25, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::All the way up to 70% now. --Patteroast 16:58, June 25, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::Make it 80%--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 19:07, June 25, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression One There we go! Atlantic season's really begun. Forecast to be Alex before hitting the Yucatan, will take a serious hit and will take a while to regenerate after that. --Patteroast 22:38, June 25, 2010 (UTC) :Beat me to it, a$$hole! ;P. "The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun." -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:40, June 25, 2010 (UTC) ::This is a gigantic storm. About the size of the entire Gulf of Mexico. The depression could strengthen to a strong TS and hit western Louisiana where it will have heavy impacts on the oil spill. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:20, June 25, 2010 (UTC) :At this rate,(Alex) will be passing over the Yucatan, and could threaten the Corpus Christi area after it emerges into the Gulf. This isn't what i'm fearing for this season, though. It's nowhere close to being the "monster storm" of 2010 that could wreck the entire gulf coast and beat Katrina as our costliest natural disaster in history. 02:02, June 26, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Alex And there we go.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 11:10, June 26, 2010 (UTC) :This storm appears to be larger than Ike, Katrina and Bill, but it is only a TS so far and will likely shrink as it intensifies. However, it is now expected to strengthen to a cat. 1 before hitting Mexico, and there's a real possibility of the forecast changing. GFS, for example, splits the storm in two and sends one part into the Florida Panhandle and Nova Scotia. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:19, June 26, 2010 (UTC) ::Currently making landfall on northern Belize. Heavy rains expected for Guatemala. The circulation of Alex extends into the Pacific and may actually absorb stronger Hurricane Darby. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:13, June 26, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Alex (again) Back to TD, but expected to intensify again. NHC forecast points to a Tamaulipas, Mexico landfall, but some models still direct it towards Texas or Louisiana. It's now moving back over water, but wow this is a huge storm whose spiral bands already almost cover the entire Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:46, June 27, 2010 (UTC) Tropical storm Alex (again) The latest NHC advisory on Alex is 50 mph and a rather low pressure for the winds, 990 mbars. Forecast to peak at 110 mph (though it will probrably get past that based on how well it's lookin' on the sattelites), and Texas is within a good range of this storm's path, but it isn't threatening the oil spill area... yet. 11:20, June 28, 2010 (UTC) :Alex is simultaneously bringing thunderstorms to Texas, Georgia, Jamaica, and Costa Rica! This is an unbelievably huge WPac-like storm, and it's only the first of the season! 2007Astro'sHurricane 02:46, June 29, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Alex Upgraded! NHC notes it's the first June hurricane since 1995 in the Atlantic. --Patteroast 04:46, June 30, 2010 (UTC) :And the strongest since Audrey in 1957; 961 mbars right now(Alma peaked at 970, and the 1945 storm has no known pressure). Looks like it'll miss Texas, but it's big enough to affect the state with heavy rain and winds. 11:26, June 30, 2010 (UTC) ::Where IS everybody? The storm is currently at 959 mb, the strength of a category three hurricane! It's expected to be a category two at landfall, and mandatory evacuations are in effect for South Padre Island. This will be worse than Dolly, simply because it is much, much larger. It's likely to be about the size of Ike when it makes landfall, and it currently spans half the Gulf. However, the mountains of Mexico will likely slow it down, and it could stall to intensify farther. Given the current pressure, NHC says HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. This means that Alex could make landfall as a category three hurricane! This is a very dangerous storm, and all residents of the western Gulf need to take notice. Rainfall in areas of south Texas could be in upwards of 12 inches over a large area and 15+ inches locally. I estimate that the storm surge in some areas can be up to 25 ft. 2007Astro'sHurricane 12:11, June 30, 2010 (UTC) :I'm taking close note of this storm, and it could become a very dangerous storm as it comes on into Texas. This Ike size storm is moving very slowly to Texas and when it comes in, it will shatter all July records for rainfall in the state; Dolly fails in comparison to Alex. This storm will also be ''very destructive, Some areas in Texas are still recovering from Dolly, which did over a billion dollars in damage to the same area a month later 2 years ago. It could be the most destructive pre-August hurricane to hit the U.S. on record, beating Dennis, which did ~2 billion in damage. 20:10, June 30, 2010 (UTC) : :It might be weakening. 20:12, June 30, 2010 (UTC) ::Or it might not be. It's on the verge of becoming (or already is!) a category two. It's just hours from landfall, went through what resembled a reverse EWRC, and now has what looks like a PINHOLE EYE! 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:58, June 30, 2010 (UTC) :::It's now a 100 mph category two. NHC expects to issue another advisory at 8 pm CDT, or 9 pm EDT. It looks like a cat. 4. The storm is strengthening so rapidly, and wobbling so much that it could be as bad for South Padre as Ike was for Galveston. But that's just a guess, as it's strengthened so quickly. Remember folks, this is only the first storm of the season. It's now 950 mb, and if it drops a few mb more it will beat Audrey as the strongest June hurricane on record. I'd hate to think what kind of damage the inland flooding from this storm will do. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:10, June 30, 2010 (UTC) :::Very close to making landfall over Tampaulipas' barrier island. Wish y'all were here right now. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:51, July 1, 2010 (UTC) ::Right now, Alex is rapidly strengthening,and I could see Alex becoming a cat. 4 just before landfall, or in the worst case scenario, it could briefly jump for cat. 5 intensity. It has the next advisory to beat Audrey, and that's it, but Alex is large enough to batter South Padre with 50+ mph winds and up to an 8 ft. storm surge, it won't matter if it beats Audrey, either way it will be very destructive. 02:11, July 1, 2010 (UTC) :Up, latest advisory, And Alex came just one mbar short of beating Audrey, 105 and 947 is Alex's final stats. Still, this hurricane will be very destructive. 02:15, July 1, 2010 (UTC) ::Alex has made landfall. Audrey was 946 mb, and this storm likely intensified after recon left the final reading at 947. Might have to examine any pressure readings at the surface in Mexico. Same for winds, as this storm looked way higher than 105 mb at landfall. If this storm had more time over water, it could have been very destructive. But the inland flooding will be a concern. Some models drift one of Alex's layers over the Bay of Campeche. This is still such a large storm that mountain and river flooding will be widespread wherever it goes. It still has a chance of crossing Mexico into the Pacific, so we'll see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 02:30, July 1, 2010 (UTC) :Astro, I don't know where this storm is goin' by it's damage, but this storm could be one of the wettest - if not the wettest pre - August storm in the Atlantic for Mexico on record, and it also is the strongest storm to hit Mexico before July on record (In EDT, not UTC). Also, this storm could be signifying a very active hurricane season ahead of us - even 2005 wasn't like this at this time of year. 02:51, July 1, 2010 (UTC) :For the record, 947 millibars is ridiculous for a 90 kt hurricane, particularly in June. 947 mb is equivalent to a Cat 4. To put this in perspective, Hurricane Audrey of 1957, the strongest June hurricane of all time, had 125-kt winds and a 946 mb pressure. This is a rather ominous start to the hurricane season. Alex is the strongest Atlantic hurricane in June in 44 years and the strongest in terms of pressure since Audrey, which beat Alex by a millibar. The fact that the pressure got that low is very unsettling. And like Jim Cantore and Astro said, I don't think Alex is just going to ride off into the sunset. It's been onshore for a couple of hours now and doesn't appear to have weakened at all. This could turn into a pretty ugly rain event for northeast Mexico. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:26, July 1, 2010 (UTC) ::Also, that pressure nosedived 15 millibars from the 1 pm CDT advisory until landfall 8 hours later; 962 to 947. In fact, between 1pm and the 6pm advisory, the pressure plummetted 12 millibars. 12 millibars in five hours is ridiculous, especially when you're talking about only a 10kt increase in wind. This very much resembled Opal's 18 mb drop in 6 hours in 1995. Four hours later, Opal's pressure had dropped another 19 mb and the winds had jumped 20 kts. The people of Mexico and south Texas better thank the Father, the Son and the Holy Spirit that Alex hit land when it did. This thing was getting ready to explode. Had the ridge over the southern US not strengthened at the last minute like some of the models were predicting, we could've easily had a Category 4 hurricane making landfall in south Texas this morning. This was a wake up call. We got lucky with this one. Alex had it so easy. I shudder to think what the future holds for the rest of the season. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:58, July 1, 2010 (UTC) :Sky, this storm is remarkable now, being the strongest non-major hurricane in the Atlantic on record, but we don't know what the rest of the season will have. It could be like '05, which was nasty all the way through, but it could also be like '68, with a nasty start but nothing else. Just because Alex gave 2010 a fast start doesn't tell us what the rest of 2010 will have in store for us. The East Pacific has had one of their fastest starts on record, but the West Pacific, on the other hand, is so dead right now that, at this rate, it could beat 1977 as the least active season on record there. I remember last year when we talked about the deadened basins worldwide in July(yes, I am also the "76" guy), and 2010 is also very quiet right now by terms of numbers; last year only 74 named storms formed worldwide, and this year has had only 29 named storms so far, 9 of which were from the northern hemisphere. So this year is rather quiet by terms of numbers, but a few of the storms this year have been notable in the least. 06:28, July 1, 2010 (UTC) ::Also, I take credit for what you mentioned about Alex about to explode, Sky. This storm was about to pull something like the 1880 Brownsville Hurricane, but it pulled a storm like Isidore of 2002 instead. What Isidore did was it's pressure plunged down to 934 mbars (the lowest pressure from any Atlantic hurricane that didn't beat cat. 3), and it was forecast to hit Texas/Louisiana as a 150 mph cat. 4, but the ridge north of Isidore strengthened so much that Isidore was forced down onto the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula at that intensity, which tore the storm apart. And all we got from Isidore was a 65 mph storm in southern Louisiana; it brought heavy rain, but damage was not severe in the U.S. 06:52, July 1, 2010 (UTC) Post-tropical Alex OK, I don't know what happened to the updating as the storm weakened, but the NHC had issued its last advisory and Alex is no more. However, looking at the satellite imagery, the remnant circulation of Alex is over northwestern Mexico, but its influence extends far and wide. This stretches from Kansas to the northeastern Gulf to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to the East Pacific (that part looks like a cold front). Wherever the remnants go, it's going to cause even more flooding. 28 deaths have been blamed on Alex already. In fact, there's a good chance that one or a few portions of Alex's remnant moisture and/or circulation will combine with other tropical disturbances to "reincarnate" Alex. Ominously but perhaps irrelavently, Alex's ACE when it made landfall was 6.66. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:54, July 2, 2010 (UTC) :By the way, I forgot to mention that Alex's eye redeveloped on land as a TS just as it was about to move from the plateaus of Mexico to the higher mountains. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:55, July 2, 2010 (UTC) 94L.INVEST New area, low risk right now. Models mostly seem to see if curving up and near Bermuda. --Patteroast 16:58, June 25, 2010 (UTC) :Sea surface temps in that area are about 2C above normal. 2007Astro'sHurricane 02:51, June 26, 2010 (UTC) ::This poofed a while back. --Patteroast 04:47, June 30, 2010 (UTC) :::It's been absorbed by an ULL over the Bahamas. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:24, June 30, 2010 (UTC) AoI: East of the Bahamas OK, I know what you're thinking, IT'S OVER LAND! However, satellite imageryhttp://www.sat24.com/image.ashx?country=afwa&type=slide&time=&index=1&sat=ir shows that after a huge burst of convection, this soon-to-be wave is developing a spiral banding pattern, with what looks almost like an eye, on the border of the Sahel and the Sahara. About half a week ago there was another system south of Nigeria, but that has drifted east into another wave, with some of its previous convection within this new system. GFS develops it in three days after emerging off the coast of Africa. This is also a fairly large system. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:50, June 26, 2010 (UTC) :It's on the NHC discussion: "A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS." 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:48, June 27, 2010 (UTC) ::Now it's over water and still looks well-organized. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:46, June 28, 2010 (UTC) :: ::No mention on TWO, our attentions og back to the EPAC. 15:42, July 1, 2010 (UTC) :::Models hinting at development near the Bahamas. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:14, July 3, 2010 (UTC) July 95L.INVEST Yup, it's here already. This developed from part of the outflow of Alex entering the subtropical jet ahead of a cold front. The low-level circulation is developing on land, and most models send it west but some send it east. This could be like Ernesto, blowing up over warm waters but this time over the Gulf oil spill. It could also stall over the New Orleans-FL Panhandle region for several days, or it could drift east into the Gulf Stream. NHC gives it a 10% chance of development, probably because it's still a frontal system, but it could develop as a subtropical storm. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:22, July 2, 2010 (UTC) :Not gonna happen. 18:49, July 2, 2010 (UTC) ::Right now, it looks like a subtropical storm. Its strong circulation is very near the Deepwater Horizon. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, July 4, 2010 (UTC) :::It's looking better than at any point I've seen it, so far. Even if it doesn't develop, any sort of storminess and wind right by the spill can't be a good thing. --Patteroast 22:07, July 4, 2010 (UTC) Woho! Special TWO. A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. I love these type of storms. YE 21:32, July 5, 2010 (UTC) :Man, this was a weird little system. If it had more time over water, something interesting would have happened. However, it's now over land. --Patteroast 13:29, July 6, 2010 (UTC) AoI: North of Honduras The outflow of Alex is helping this storm as well, but the models that do develop it send it northeastward then over the Bahamas and into New England. CMC does a Fujiwara with this one, and I'm not kidding about that, it actually accelerates this system ahead of 95L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:22, July 2, 2010 (UTC) :It moved south around Alex's circulation and merged into the system farther south. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:10, July 3, 2010 (UTC) 02L.TWO AoI: South of Jamaica This system could dirft northwestwards into the footsteps of Alex, or it could drift over Central America and fizzle out, or possibly into the East Pacific to affect Central America. NOGAPS usually develops systems like this all season, while ECWMF hinted at a system developing north of the Yucatan in about a week. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:22, July 2, 2010 (UTC) :GFS gives this system a boost from a possible Bay of Campeche system and part of 95L to head into the Gulf and hit south Texas. CMC meanwhile landfalls it on the Texas/Louisiana border. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:10, July 3, 2010 (UTC) 96L.INVEST It's been declared an invest. It looks well-developed now, but NHC only gives it a 30% chance of development. However, it could easily become a depression by tomorrow, and it looks like it will take a track north of Alex. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, July 4, 2010 (UTC) :I've been looking at this and was going to post, but I wasn't sure which of your AoIs it came from. :P --Patteroast 22:08, July 4, 2010 (UTC) ::Becomig less organized. However, presures are falling somewhat (down to 1009 mb per RBT). 40% chance of TC devlopment. I think it will be like Barry 07. However, I dont want this to devlop. YE :::I'm continually surprised that this isn't further along than it is. I agree that 96L is a pretty good candidate for becoming Barry. --Patteroast 13:29, July 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::Barry? You mean Bonnie? Anyway recon is investigating and NHC gives this an 80% chance of development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:50, July 7, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two Oops. Yeah, I meant to say Bonnie, but was reading what YE said about Barry 07 while typing. Either way... it's a depression now! --Patteroast 05:23, July 8, 2010 (UTC) :Man, that is one sorry excuse for a depression right now. Just looking at the satellite photos, I wouldn't even say it looked like a good invest right now. It won't have much time to get its act together if it wants a name. --Patteroast 09:04, July 8, 2010 (UTC) ::Aaaand nevermind. It's inland now. Looks like it was starting to reorganize, but it didn't do it fast enough. There's still going to be a lot of flooding, though... --Patteroast 01:25, July 9, 2010 (UTC) AoI: East of the Lesser Antilles CMC develops this system and gives it a Felix-like track. I think this is worth watching just for that. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:10, July 3, 2010 (UTC) AoI:Southwestern Caribbean Interesting little blob, has a nice cyclonic circulation. See if it develops. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:18, July 9, 2010 (UTC) :Dotn think so.YE 13:58, July 12, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Southern Gulf Loosely disorganized right now, but likely to organize further and has a significant chance of development. Currently covered by an upper-level anticyclone. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:18, July 14, 2010 (UTC) :It's on the TWO at 10%. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:19, July 16, 2010 (UTC) 03L.BONNIE AoI: Northeast of the Lesser Antilles New system appearing as low-risk on the TWO. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:27, July 15, 2010 (UTC) :Don think it is goona devlop for now. YE 19:47, July 15, 2010 (UTC) ::No longer on NHC. --Patteroast 08:07, July 16, 2010 (UTC) :::It's now a tiny circulating system encountering some shear. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:33, July 17, 2010 (UTC) ::::It's back on NHC, at 10%. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:19, July 18, 2010 (UTC) 97L.INVEST Now an invest, and soon to pass north of Hispanola. It's a medium-sized and well-defined system, and NHC is giving it a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. SHIPS brings this up to a cat. 1, and the Gulf waters it's expected to enter are 30C+. Models are hinting at a possible landfall in Texas. We could have our second Gulf hurricane of the season. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:28, July 19, 2010 (UTC) :Up to medium risk on NHC. This is definitely a storm to watch... --Patteroast 05:58, July 20, 2010 (UTC) ::Now at high risk. We could have Bonnie very soon. The storm could follow a track like Katrina but it's unlikely to develop and strengthen over the Bahamas. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:37, July 20, 2010 (UTC) :::It was down to medium risk, but now it's back to high. NHC says that "A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY..." --Patteroast 12:04, July 22, 2010 (UTC) ::::Oh! Special TWO issued which says, "VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA." So, either Tropical Depression Three or Tropical Storm Bonnie, very soon. --Patteroast 13:18, July 22, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three Upgraded. YE 17:30, July 22, 2010 (UTC) Discussion says 000 WTNT43 KNHC 221503 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT... NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE EARLIER. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIA 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 5DAY VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS So not a Katrina, but its track is sorta like Rita. YE 17:38, July 22, 2010 (UTC) :The oil spill is located within the cone. However, NHC currently finds it unlikely the storm will become a hurricane. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:07, July 22, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bonnie Hurricane Hunters found tropical storm force winds. Hello, Bonnie! --Patteroast 22:42, July 22, 2010 (UTC) Landfall in Florida. 15:23, July 23, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Northern Gulf of Mexico This system may be interacting with the oil spill, plus it's over the warmest waters in the basin, and it's under low wind shear as well. Currently on NHC at 10%, but close to shore. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:20, July 16, 2010 (UTC) 98L.INVEST AoI: Yucatan Channel A very large system, but under a lot of shear. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:33, July 17, 2010 (UTC) :Circulation is becoming better defined. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:30, July 19, 2010 (UTC) ::Now up to 20% on NHC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:28, July 19, 2010 (UTC) :::Now off NHC, but I wonder if this low could influence the path of future Bonnie, which is unfortunately bringing heavy rains to central Haiti. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:40, July 20, 2010 (UTC) 98L.INVEST Located in the Bay of Campeche. This was invest'd a day or so ago... currently at medium risk of development before making landfall. --Patteroast 12:04, July 22, 2010 (UTC) :Somewhat large system, this is looking like a TD and affecting the areas flooded out after Hurricane Alex. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:07, July 22, 2010 (UTC) ::Looking pretty unlikely that it'll become a depression before landfall. --Patteroast 02:48, July 23, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Central Atlantic This system has a low-level circulation over the islands, and a burst of convection in the ICTZ farther south. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:28, July 19, 2010 (UTC) :It's pretty much fizzled out by now, but cleared out a path of non-dry air. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:44, July 20, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Southeast of Cape Verde New system, winds possibly up to 30kt, looks fairly well-developed already. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:44, July 20, 2010 (UTC)